Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison

Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison

So, let me thank you
for the opportunity to talk about the biggest international story
of your professional lifetime, which is also the most important
international challenge the world will face
for as far as the eye can see. The story, of course,
is the rise of China. Never before have so many people
risen so far so fast, on so many different dimensions. The challenge is the impact
of China’s rise — the discombobulation
this will cause the Unites States and the international order, of which the US has been
the principal architect and guardian. The past 100 years have been what
historians now call an “American Century.” Americans have become
accustomed to their place at the top of every pecking order. So the very idea of another country that could be as big and strong
as the US — or bigger — strikes many Americans
as an assault on who they are. For perspective on what
we’re now seeing in this rivalry, it’s useful to locate it
on the larger map of history. The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power
threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of those ended in war. So just in November, we’ll all pause
to mark the 100th anniversary of the final day of a war
that became so encompassing, that it required historians to create
an entirely new category: world war. So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, the guns of World War I fell silent, but 20 million individuals lay dead. I know that this
is a sophisticated audience, so you know about the rise of China. I’m going to focus, therefore,
on the impact of China’s rise, on the US, on the international order and on the prospects for war and peace. But having taught at Harvard
over many years, I’ve learned that from time to time,
it’s useful to take a short pause, just to make sure we’re all
on the same page. The way I do this is, I call a time-out, I give students a pop quiz —
ungraded, of course. So, let’s try this. Time-out, pop quiz. Question: forty years ago, 1978, China sets out
on its march to the market. At that point, what percentage
of China’s one billion citizens were struggling to survive
on less than two dollars a day? Take a guess — 25 percent? Fifty? Seventy-five? Ninety. What do you think? Ninety. Nine out of every 10
on less than two dollars a day. Twenty eighteen, 40 years later. What about the numbers? What’s your bet? Take a look. Fewer than one in 100 today. And China’s president has promised
that within the next three years, those last tens of millions
will have been raised up above that threshold. So it’s a miracle, actually,
in our lifetime. Hard to believe. But brute facts are even harder to ignore. A nation that didn’t even appear
on any of the international league tables 25 years ago has soared, to rival — and in some areas,
surpass — the United States. Thus, the challenge
that will shape our world: a seemingly unstoppable rising China accelerating towards an apparently
immovable ruling US, on course for what could be
the grandest collision in history. To help us get our minds
around this challenge, I’m going to introduce you
to a great thinker, I’m going to present a big idea, and I’m going to pose a most
consequential question. The great thinker is Thucydides. Now, I know his name is a mouthful, and some people
have trouble pronouncing it. So, let’s do it, one,
two, three, together: Thucydides. One more time: Thucydides. So who was Thucydides? He was the father and founder of history. He wrote the first-ever history book. It’s titled “The History
of the Peloponnesian War,” about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago. So if nothing else today,
you can tweet your friends, “I met a great thinker. And I can even pronounce
his name: Thucydides.” So, about this war
that destroyed classical Greece, Thucydides wrote famously: “It was the rise of Athens
and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable.” So the rise of one and the reaction of the other create a toxic cocktail of pride, arrogance, paranoia, that drug them both to war. Which brings me to the big idea: Thucydides’s Trap. “Thucydides’s Trap” is a term
I coined several years ago, to make vivid Thucydides’s insight. Thucydides’s Trap is the dangerous
dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens
to displace a ruling power, like Athens — or Germany 100 years ago,
or China today — and their impact on Sparta, or Great Britain 100 years ago,
or the US today. As Henry Kissinger has said, once you get this idea, this concept
of Thucydides’s Trap in your head, it will provide a lens for helping you look through
the news and noise of the day to understand what’s actually going on. So, to the most consequential question
about our world today: Are we going to follow
in the footsteps of history? Or can we, through a combination
of imagination and common sense and courage find a way to manage this rivalry without a war nobody wants, and everybody knows would be catastrophic? Give me five minutes to unpack this, and later this afternoon, when the next
news story pops up for you about China doing this,
or the US reacting like that, you will be able to have a better
understanding of what’s going on and even to explain it to your friends. So as we saw with this flipping
the pyramid of poverty, China has actually soared. It’s meteoric. Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel,
I think, put it best. He said, “All this has happened so fast,
we haven’t yet had time to be astonished.” (Laughter) To remind myself
how astonished I should be, I occasionally look out the window
in my office in Cambridge at this bridge, which goes
across the Charles River, between the Kennedy School
and Harvard Business School. In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said
they were going to renovate this bridge, and it would take two years. In 2014, they said it wasn’t finished. In 2015, they said
it would take one more year. In 2016, they said it’s not finished, we’re not going to tell you
when it’s going to be finished. Finally, last year, it was finished —
three times over budget. Now, compare this to a similar bridge
that I drove across last month in Beijing. It’s called the Sanyuan Bridge. In 2015, the Chinese decided
they wanted to renovate that bridge. It actually has twice as many
lanes of traffic. How long did it take for them
to complete the project? Twenty fifteen, what do you bet? Take a guess — OK, three — Take a look. (Laughter) The answer is 43 hours. (Audience: Wow!) (Laughter) Graham Allison: Now, of course,
that couldn’t happen in New York. (Laughter) Behind this speed in execution
is a purpose-driven leader and a government that works. The most ambitious
and most competent leader on the international stage today
is Chinese President Xi Jinping. And he’s made no secret
about what he wants. As he said when he became
president six years ago, his goal is to make China great again — (Laughter) a banner he raised long before
Donald Trump picked up a version of this. To that end, Xi Jinping has announced
specific targets for specific dates: 2025, 2035, 2049. By 2025, China means to be
the dominant power in the major market
in 10 leading technologies, including driverless cars, robots, artificial intelligence,
quantum computing. By 2035, China means to be
the innovation leader across all the advanced technologies. And by 2049, which is
the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, China means to be
unambiguously number one, including, [says] Xi Jinping,
an army that he calls “Fight and Win.” So these are audacious goals,
but as you can see, China is already well on its way to these objectives. And we should remember
how fast our world is changing. Thirty years ago, the World Wide Web had not
yet even been invented. Who will feel the impact
of this rise of China most directly? Obviously, the current number one. As China gets bigger
and stronger and richer, technologically more advanced, it will inevitably bump up against
American positions and prerogatives. Now, for red-blooded Americans — and especially for red-necked Americans
like me; I’m from North Carolina — there’s something wrong with this picture. The USA means number one,
that’s who we are. But again, to repeat:
brute facts are hard to ignore. Four years ago, Senator John McCain
asked me to testify about this to his Senate Armed Services Committee. And I made for them a chart
that you can see, that said, compare the US and China to kids on opposite ends
of a seesaw on a playground, each represented by the size
of their economy. As late as 2004,
China was just half our size. By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours. And on the current trajectory,
by 2024, it will be half again larger. The consequences of this tectonic change
will be felt everywhere. For example, in the current
trade conflict, China is already
the number one trading partner of all the major Asian countries. Which brings us back
to our Greek historian. Harvard’s “Thucydides’s Trap Case File”
has reviewed the last 500 years of history and found 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of these ended in war. And the tragedy of this
is that in very few of these did either of the protagonists want a war; few of these wars were initiated
by either the rising power or the ruling power. So how does this work? What happens is,
a third party’s provocation forces one or the other to react, and that sets in motion a spiral, which drags the two somewhere
they don’t want to go. If that seems crazy, it is. But it’s life. Remember World War I. The provocation in that case was the assassination
of a second-level figure, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which then led
the Austro-Hungarian emperor to issue an ultimatum to Serbia, they dragged in the various allies, within two months,
all of Europe was at war. So imagine if Thucydides were watching
planet Earth today. What would he say? Could he find a more appropriate
leading man for the ruling power than Donald J Trump? (Laughter) Or a more apt lead for the rising
power than Xi Jinping? And he would scratch his head and certainly say he couldn’t think
of more colorful provocateur than North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. Each seems determined
to play his assigned part and is right on script. So finally, we conclude again
with the most consequential question, the question that will have
the gravest consequences for the rest of our lives: Are Americans and Chinese going to let
the forces of history drive us to a war that would be catastrophic for both? Or can we summon
the imagination and courage to find a way to survive together, to share the leadership
in the 21st century, or, as Xi Jinping [said], to create
a new form of great power relations? That’s the issue I’ve been
pursuing passionately for the last two years. I’ve had the opportunity to talk
and, indeed, to listen to leaders of all
the relevant governments — Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo — and to thought leaders across the spectrum
of both the arts and business. I wish I had more to report. The good news is that leaders
are increasingly aware of this Thucydidean dynamic and the dangers that it poses. The bad news is that
nobody has a feasible plan for escaping history as usual. So it’s clear to me
that we need some ideas outside the box
of conventional statecraft — indeed, from another page
or another space — which is what brings me to TED today and which brings me to a request. This audience includes many
of the most creative minds on the planet, who get up in the morning and think not only about how to manage
the world we have, but how to create worlds that should be. So I’m hopeful that as this sinks in
and as you reflect on it, some of you are going to have
some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas, that when we find, will make
a difference in this space. And just to remind you if you do, this won’t be the first time. Let me remind you of what happened
right after World War II. A remarkable group of Americans
and Europeans and others, not just from government, but from
the world of culture and business, engaged in a collective
surge of imagination. And what they imagined
and what they created was a new international order, the order that’s allowed you and me
to live our lives, all of our lives, without great power war and with more prosperity
than was ever seen before on the planet. So, a remarkable story. Interestingly, every pillar of this
project that produced these results, when first proposed, was rejected by the foreign
policy establishment as naive or unrealistic. My favorite is the Marshall Plan. After World War II,
Americans felt exhausted. They had demobilized 10 million troops, they were focused on
an urgent domestic agenda. But as people began to appreciate
how devastated Europe was and how aggressive Soviet communism was, Americans eventually decided
to tax themselves a percent and a half of GDP
every year for four years and send that money to Europe
to help reconstruct these countries, including Germany and Italy, whose troops had just
been killing Americans. Amazing. This also created the United Nations. Amazing. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The World Bank. NATO. All of these elements of an order
for peace and prosperity. So, in a word, what we need
to do is do it again. And I think now we need a surge
of imagination, creativity, informed by history, for, as the philosopher
Santayana reminded us, in the end, only those
who refuse to study history are condemned to repeat it. Thank you. (Applause)


  1. The problem is that all the elements which were put in place after world war 2 all were meant to serve the western powers while the rest of the world went to filth and now europe and US cant bear to see other countries rise hence world war 3 will be triggered by the western powers

  2. Graham Allison is a paid propagandist for the CCP. The CCP changed how extreme poverty was counted in their country. They do not go by the international standard of living under $2 a day. They changed it to living under $1 per day

  3. We probably only have 15-20 years of naval dominance left. Then what will happen to Taiwan? Maybe with Japanese and Taiwanese support it will hold but I'm not so sure. This is why we need immigration and a united Europe. The US alone does not have nearly the population to compete with China. And then lastly we need science funding. Without these changes the world order will come to an end.

  4. A full on mass scale military conflict is very very unlikely since both China and the US are nuclear monopolies. Then again, this day and age there are many other ways to undermine another regime, trade wars, espionage, propaganda – all of which are already well underway.

  5. Every word Dr. Allison says – I listen to … we all should imho. Trouble is, the Chicoms want to throttle international commerce (through the sea lanes around the Spratly reef chain) …. and they want to annex Taiwan. These two aspirations are the things that will lead to war. If the Chinese want to abandon these plans, they could probably press on to improve life for their people. But this isn't their goal, is it? I plan on being good at piano some day …. but I would never think of throwing Billy Joel (my personal choice for example) under the bus in that pursuit.

  6. I remember back in the middle 90's meeting a government business associate of my father who was anxious to capitalize on the Chinese 'market'. BIG $$! I was a green horn, but.. I thought damm, the Chinese? A Communist hegemony. They will sell us the rope they'll use to HANG US. TWENTY plus years later…☠

  7. . The Europeans who came to america were refugees, vagabonds, political and religious extremists.

    X convicts from Europe were sent to colonize America .

    America has been at war one way or the other since its founding.

    America is responsible for genocide.

    A war with China is how America conducts business.

    Violent regime changes in foreign countries is how America does business.

    America and Japan 1940s is the same scenario being carried out in 2019 relating to China and the USA.

    America provokes war's and confusion.

    America was founded on violence and genocide

  8. Of course there will be war. The communists want peace… Which will be achieved when all there enemies are crushed. When Red China goose steps the west pouts. Ethnic Turkish muslims, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, 2 million Koreans and others wud love freedom and their own lands back but they know Red China can count on the west to do nothing more than feel sad for them. When Red China crushes religions u might hear a wimper here n there. Organ harvesting might merit a video in the West but hey the doctors in Red China will only use any pause to sharpen their scaples. Red China wants a few thousand extra miles of the China Sea and the response by Hollywood n Disney is to edit their movies with a nww 9 – 9 line in spite of and contray to the International Court ruling against Red China. Red China installed a military base in Africa, recently Greece agreed to let them build a deep water port large which seems large enough for their aircraft carrier submarines to dock. They r everywhere now and they are not going to stop.

  9. Britain was still number one at that time. She created another number one enemy not Japan for the whole world to fight in the WW2.

  10. China couldn’t sustain a war. They won’t go there. It would collapse their economy and they would lose power. They’ll never go to war.

  11. I think there is a very slim chance of a war because nowadays people, countries and economies are too intertwined. If your house is intertwined with your neighbour, you won't attempt to bring down your neighbour's house. Nevertheless, clandestine subversive activities like fomenting unrest cannot be ruled out.

  12. This has already started, Hong Kong is the proxy. The moment China takes over Hong Kong and the world does nothing about it, is the moment Freedom loses. Worldwide. What happens in Hong Kong will effect us all.

  13. It is inevitable because butterfly effect starts WWI. Unless we start to cultivate mutual trust, there will be no way to de-escalate the nationalism and right now CCP is using this anti-American sentiments to support legitimacy of authoritarian regime. In the long run CCP will collapse because when GNP reached 20,000 USD, people will fight for political rights to protect their wealth. China can spend more and more money controlling its people, but the wealthy and talented people will leave China for a better place. The best solution is to peacefully transition to democracy like Taiwan. The Chinese housing bubble will eventually burst, and it will take decades to recover.

  14. First this is the most realistic presentation I have seen for the past ten (10) years. Why not unite the whole world to share everything we have between all nations: poor and rich and make of this world a New World based on true friendship, sharing, pacific and with a greater future for all. And the basic for this great achievement is stopping the weaponery budgets which makes nations poor and use this money rather to make the world nicier, more accessible to everyone and share knowledge and goals between all nations again. I am sure that this is the way to go for all nations in the future and stop the idea that one nation must lead the world ! God bless the people of good will.

  15. "Never before has a nation risen so fast in so many different areas"
    ….um…. japan? Like 300 years worth of progress within 10 years back right before ww1

  16. For some reasons, I cannot post this reply under the particular comment. So here is my reply to this comment posted by Zarozian:
    "That is why China calls us "Meigoku" the "beautiful country", not because our country and its people are beautiful, but the ideals and dreams that it was built upon is beautiful, along with the people who believed in them.

    My response:
    Yeah thats not where the name came from. The first word of the phrase "mei guo ("guo" means country)" by itself generally means beautiful in Chinese, but US is only called "meiguo" simply because it is located in America and the "mei" is derived the "mer" in the english word America. Guess what we call South America, "Nan (first word meaning south) Mei (America) Zhou (continent)". Similarly, North America is called "Bei (first word meaning north) Mei (America) Zhou (continent)". I mean, you don't have to give it too much thought to realize how delusional it is to think "meiguo" means "beautiful country" in Chinese. The name "meiguo" was introduced to China soon after 1776, did you really think Asian people were treated that well in US in that period that they would go all the way to name it "beautiful country"?
    The reason why I make all this effort just to make a comment is this. I have only recently started to follow some current political events, such as the Hong Kong protest and, being a Chinese living in Canada, hear the arguments from both sides. I'm not gonna talk about which side is stupid and which side I support; these ridiculous political discourse almost always end up with both sides hating each other.
    I noticed Americans tend to believe that America is great and often unconsciously think that they should go on and "save" the rest of the world. This ideology not only exist at a national level, but also at a societal and personal level. Yes, 70 years ago America did. It was honorable and justified and a lot of people are still grateful for that. But times have changed. Failure to recognize the strengths of others or the weakness of ourselves will. I do believe most Americans like Zarozain do truly want the best for the less fortunate, but I'd be lying if I said that part of his comment wasn't delusional.

    At the end, I want to clarify that this is in no way saying China is perfect and whatnot. But one point I want to make is, a deliberately controlled and biased press that is unanimously labeled as a free press is far more insidious and potentially dangerous than you'd think.

  17. War is coming. The only thing we need to do is put Wall Streeters on the front line, since they are the ones who moved our manufacturing sector to China and built up the Chinese authoritarian regime and profited.

  18. There is no other country have such inseparable economic relation between US and China. If break war one day the backlash is catastrophe.

  19. war is just natures way to control population the bigger it gets the bigger the selective pressures become, resource and space become scarce and wars only delay the inevitable.when people stop putting one species first over the many they might see the one remaining option.

  20. As a Chinese, I do n’t think China will go to war with the United States, because China knows how powerful the United States is.

  21. I use a VPN to watch YouTube because I don't want my thinking to be narrow. The Chinese government is afraid of the people. Because it does not give the people the right to vote, it bans Western media. Therefore, the Chinese rarely participate in politics. The Chinese can only like money. , After all, war is dead

  22. The saddest thing in the world is that when you know the truth, but you don't know the media.
    And, unfortunately, the Chinese are introverted. If the Chinese had not been forced into a corner, they would not have stood up.

    USA is the vote-freely country and that's it firing and fired everywhere in the World, especially after the 2nd World War, although USA did and doing some very good things to human.
    So, the question is the vote-freely, aha?
    The vote-freely was advertised as a universal value.
    Does someone know the difference of the history and tradition among the
    Eastern, Western and Middle-East?
    Maybe he will still ignore the difference of the history and tradition among them, and really indeed want to force the vote-freely to the whole world.
    What I want to say to the above someone is, you should try to know something of the Democratic centralism in China, and learn to try to respect the path chosen by others or other countries, then come to China and see whether people lack of so-called human-rights, Could you do that?

    To someone else who said or want to say: close the camps in Xinjiang or anything of Hongkong.
    Welcome to beautiful Xinjiang/Hongkong and say something after seeing the truth.
    Someone tells the camps in Xinjiang or anything of Hongkong, and Chinese tell another thing.
    Some people from many different countries went to Xinjiang/Hongkong in 2019 and said their seeing.
    But, he, the someone else, never come to Xinjiang but prefer to believe the so-called camps.
    That's his problem, isn't it?
    He choose the western media not the local media in China.
    I have a dream: let some western fake news media stop their hypocrisy and give some real kindness to all the countries, people and races in the world.
    One World, One Dream.

  23. Americans getting rich are defenders of world order and peace (in fact, I doubt this) while Chinese getting rich is a huge challenge for the world? Classic Western logic. In Anglo-Saxon's eyes, Asians do not deserve the same status as them.

  24. Acting as the world police, fighting for equality between black and white people while plotting independence at all districts of ethinic groups in China; destroying any countries in middle east that do not embrace democracy and claiming to bring freedom for their people; massacring millions of Indians in order to get settled and fight against their tyrannus British masters. Such regime is indeed, very democratic. And when this army of justice marches towards the demon of dictatorship for 5,000 years in the east, the result is clear.

  25. Yes www3 is inev – the more China and NKor and Iran and Russia oppress, the likelihood of evil alliances and war increase to inev boiling point- via first strike by China w/in 50-60 yrs just off the top I’d say?

  26. 中国不是一个好战的国家,一向都是以和为贵的防御性原则。



  27. If China and US have a proper war the whole world will regret it. And the US and China will certainly regret it as neither will be a super power afterwards. No one will except a defeat without launching Nukes to try stop it from happening. I think Nukes have really made war a non option as far as hot wars go. It will be economic war and a war for influence and trade. Hot wars are really just NATO and the US bombing small countries that can't fight back. China Russia Iran and now even Nkorea are not really an option today. They are simply too powerful for the US to knock over no matter how much they spend on military.

  28. This guy if full of crap he wants to act like Trump is dumb when it comes to China and wants to talk about the UN being responsible for keeping war in check. Here’s some facts until Trump no other president has made other UN nations pay their share on UN defense until Trump what’s the result of that policy the UN is stronger now than it was 3 years ago. Then Trumps tariffs on China has hurt their economy hurting growth in China the over the last year. Also Trump has put trillions of dollars into rebuilding the US military China doesn’t want that to happen China would prefer what the last administration did and cut defense spending making US readiness nonexistent and under equipped while China builds its military up at the same time. Last but not least the current democrat leader in the presidential race Joe Biden said China isn’t even competition with a leader like that China won’t have to wait until 2049 they would reach their goals a lot faster so take the policy’s of Trump compared to the last administration and the former VPs position and tell me who’s a better US leader when it comes to the China problem.

  29. The war between US and China will be inevitable if the US still maintains its current mindset . China will definitely not start the war but will be forced to defend itself …

  30. i used to believe that the western people will treat china equally and fairly if we are getting better and better, however, I have found that most of them still keep the stereotype of Chinese bad side. now, I increasingly think the war won't be avoided.

  31. Hope The US have the elites like Graham Allison with the historical knowledge leading the US, fairly treat the progress of the rise of.China , jungle rules by the US military power is not effective to the Chinese, any wrong judgement without historical lessons will be the disaster of human in the world .

  32. 你祈祷聖経不是告诉你不要在大家看得到的地方嗎?罗马書没有和你说不要論断誰是善,誰是悪嗎?聖経也不是說人人都有罪吗?你说美国是善良的唯一中国是悪嗎?大陸内也有基督徒他们也有聖経不是嗎?你祈祷在YouTube 大家都看到了而且連你大陸的兄弟姐妹都給論断了。

  33. 約翰福音3:16 𧶽金句给我们是神愛世人不是唯一愛美国人而且晓喻我们人人都有罪。要我们都要認罪回改。摩西五経記錄他们的社会也是比較像社会主义。领导也是神説了算。長老执行。不顺服的人也是被殺。你的祈祷平安只為美国人而已。不是嗎?

  34. Murica : If you are paid commenter, you hurt many people by corrupting their mind. Otherwise study much more about economics so populists don’t corrupt your mind anymore.God bless

  35. From Revelation the destruction of the earth is from God above,even we pray whatever will happen will happen according to whatever been predestined. We pray for peace for the world and the broken.

  36. Xi is not a dictator he is like Trump who like to be dominance of the world. Do you remember Trump said America first because he is president of America whereas Xi is Chairman of China. If Xi is the president of America he will take care of the interests of USA. God is the head of the world, He takes care of us.

  37. Most of those examples don't fit the pattern of "ruling" and "rising" powers. Sometimes both were rising, sometimes both were long established. The real trap Thucydides showed was neither side would negotiate if it was winning, so they wore each other down in a long war that didn't need to happen or drag on. Even though Sparta won the war, it was weakened and never came back, just like Athens.

  38. Thucydides trap is heavy in the hearts of populists. The rise and glory of the western past could vanish very soon. Working together is the only solution like it or not, resources are still plentiful. All dictators can still work together, accusations may lead us to wars only.

  39. Brilliantly clear and logical, informed by the facts of history and well related to our current situation. He does not go into the 'third nation' that could trigger the wars in our version of such Thucydides' traps'. However, Japan seems to be a prime candidate, together with the South China Sea development.

  40. No it doesn’t surpass in my opinion because they succeeded so well with our technology—- the western tech created a new China—— they didn’t do it

  41. 43-hour bridge stunt was a drag. Workers went through reviews, I heard. Later, Chinese demolished and built a train station in 9 hours.

  42. How could Thucydides be the father of History when Africa had been cataloging their history for Thousands of years Before Greece was a Nation.

  43. Thucydides trap may not exactly apply because the stage is larger than described by Allison
    It's two rising powers, and one established power. India is to China, as China is to us.
    And recall that North Korea is offset by Japan & South Korea, though the Philippines seem intimidated by China.

    Everybodies real long range problem is population Implosion, according to modern demographers. It's now estimated World population will peak around 9 billion, not 11 billion, then fall off sharply with no predicted end in sight till were all gone. Japan is our real future. Currently every year Japan Shrinks by a half million. In time we too will be be arranging dummies in abandoned villages and neighborhoods to give the illusion we are not alone.
    Big surprise, Women don't want children. Everywhere women have birth control they choose not too, and nothing will change their minds. No children, or maybe one, sometimes 2-more than 2 is needed per woman just to keep even- if any have less, other women must have more and that's unlikely today. Marriage is fading away. Solitary lives is to become common is the prediction.
    The only real reason the population is growing is because we are extending human lifetimes. 90 appears the new average life span in developed countries. That illusion of growth will end by 2050 , and if trends continue, by 2220 the human race will likely be extinct.

    I imagine we will develop artificial wombs to produce children, eventually. Robots with AI might keep our race alive, despite ourselves.
    In these circumstances a changing climate is really not the problem people expect it to be, is it?

  44. Is Gulf of Mexico international water? Why does not America follow the law of Oceans and Water Conventions to tender and pay the money required before She extract oil from the water. America was robbing other members who already joined the convention. Tell me which waters are international. America doesn’t join the Convention and just want to dictate on international matters. Tell me who is dictator of the world other than the UN P5 who can confront USA. Some countries when you are strong and start to say no to the P5 then people will call you dictator otherwise you are democratic and free country.

  45. China is not rising, she is just coming back since the weakest 200 years, China was the most powerful contry in Asia even in the world sometimes during more than 4000 years history

  46. No. It's not inevitable. The problem is the U.S. is still trying to invade other countries and have control of puppet states.

  47. U.S. doesn't want a war with China, not because of China's strength, but because of China's size.
    The U.S. can defeat China easily; but, the cost of rebuilding China would make the Iraq war look cheap.
    The Chinese are not good at anything. They can't even qualify for World Cup. They sit on their butt all day memorizing worthless craps and dreaming about China being number one.
    Well, one can't be number one with 1.3 billion mediocre people.
    Are they good at soccer? Baseball? Rugby? Basketball? Hockey? Any professional team sports?
    No, not one.
    If they can't even win a fake war (like sports), how can they win real war?
    Did you know when China removes all foreign software and hardware from their 150 supercomputers, all they have left are 150 abacus?
    So, defeating China isn't hard. It's just not worth American money to rebuild China.

  48. Thucydides wrote first history book? Chinese had question on that cuz China had history book more than 4K years, never stop, many were destroyed at Qing dynasty tho, but still keep the names and what happened on the history books. And for people who hates China, you all is not about freedom, not about democracy, not about human rights, cuz China had these also, you don’t want to accept it, for example, American democracy is called voting democracy, China is called competing democracy, you just want to discriminate Chinese people, so you racist people all say we just don’t like the ccp, I’m fine with Chinese, we bring democracy to save you, you are all in slave by ccp! These racist people want ccp to build bridges in 9 months just like them, so that white people will feel better just like the past 3 hundred years, you all should learn from history books that China is world top empire many times for the past 5000years, and Chinese people were racist to all white and black people for thousands of years, in today’s world people should respect each other, not spread hatred and go to war, if USA and China is going to war, we all know what happens next, earth will not be suitable for living

  49. What I have to say is that the long-term governance of a political party can give this country's government efficient execution.

  50. Do any of the big brains think for a minute that China is Shackled by the Climate Change religion? And other over burdened regulations. Not in a slave driven dictatorship. Give the people liberty. Trump 2020.

  51. american leaders can scapegoat china for declining standards of living in the U.S. this is a circumstance in which a democratic government is more easily led into war than an authoritarian government.

  52. His speech is irrelevant now. Nuclear weapons has change the game, it is an absolute deterrent to MILITARY war as both sides will suffer catastrophically regardless.

  53. "Thucydides's Trap" should have had only happened in Europe, which was relatively small and crowded geographically and all tribes competing the limited resources for survival. Today, USA and China are far from each other and this world is big enough for both to grow and prosperous (not only survival). Besides, both USA and China represent two different but complementary cultures. USA represents adventurous, ideology, and individual freedom while China represents moderation (Confucian), pragmatism, and Family-based Collectivism. These two cultures are different but could co-exist well and complement each other. Therefore, I do not believe there is such thing like "Thucydides's Trap" or it could not be avoided.

  54. Yeah if you start a war killing Chinese people then yeah. Even now China is saying even if China rules Taiwan they want peace right like hong Kong says they don't want extradition Bill's and protested we tried to accommodate once people rioted. But then hong Kong is like now extradition bill is not enough we want elections just like Taiwan China thinks you want too much.

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